Comparative Investment Memo #1 — investingRobinhood

Superseded (AMZN trade plan): Ver AMZN-2026-06-19.md para exit/trim Ackman y posición abierta.

Fund: investingRobinhood
Date: 2026-06-18
AUM: $100.00 (100% cash)
PM: CIO (Ackman mandate)
Candidates: HOOD · GOOGL · AMZN

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Executive summary

Ticker	Conviction	Verdict	Rationale (1 line)
AMZN	Alta	BUY	Great business; market overly penalizing FCF for $200B AI capex; AWS reaccelerating
GOOGL	Media	WATCHLIST	Quality + AI monetization proven; less variant perception; Existing holder overlap
HOOD	Media-Baja	PASS	Cyclical broker at P/E ~47; holder overlap

Recommended action: Initiate $45 (45%) long AMZN via limit ~$237 GTC at market open. Reserve $55 for add-on post-Q2 or second thesis.

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1. HOOD — PASS (do not deploy fund capital now)

Business quality

• Retail broker + crypto + prediction markets + cash management.
• Q1 2026: equity notional volume +54% YoY to $638B; net deposits +22% annualized ($17.7B).
• Moat: brand, mobile UX, Gold ecosystem, product velocity (Agentic accounttrading MCP = strategic relevance to us).

Market price (as of 2026-06-17 close)

• $105.20 | P/E 46.8x | P/B 9.4x | Mkt cap ~$95B
• 52w range: $63.51 – $153.86 (highly volatile; +65% off March lows, -32% off Oct peak)

Variant perception

• Bull: Prediction markets (Bernstein: rev $150M → $586M in 2026); World Cup catalyst; workforce -10% + record volumes = operating leverage; EPS trajectory $0.38 → est. $0.41 Q2.
• Bear: Q1 revenue miss on crypto slump; retail trading cyclical; P/E rich for a broker; Deutsche target $105 below after-hours price; workforce cut read as cost panic vs confident scaling.

Catalyst (3–12 mo)

• Q2 earnings ~Jul 29, 2026 — prediction markets + margin story.
• World Cup volume through summer 2026.

Why PASS for this fund

1. **Existing holder overlap.
2. P/E ~47 — paying for growth already in price after massive run from $63.
3. Thesis is event-driven hype (World Cup, prediction markets) more than durable moat re-rating — Ackman wants quality + mispricing, not lottery on event volumes.
4. First fund position should not duplicate LP's biggest winner.

Kill criteria (if we revisit)

• P/E compresses to low-30s on confirmed EPS ramp without crypto/prediction dependency
• Stock pullback to high-$70s/low-$80s with intact deposit growth

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2. GOOGL — WATCHLIST (strong business, insufficient mispricing)

Business quality

• Search cash machine + Google Cloud (+63% YoY Q1) + TPUs + Gemini (900M MAU cited in market commentary).
• Moat: Wide — distribution, data, infrastructure, enterprise cloud backlog ~$460B (per CNBC Q1 commentary).

Market price

• $363.79 | P/E 28.5x | P/B 9.4x | Mkt cap ~$4.4T
• 52w high $408.61 (May 2026) — only -11% off peak; 52w low $162 (Jun 2025) reflects prior year dislocation

Variant perception

• Bull: Only Mag7 name that rewarded mega AI capex ($180–190B); Cloud backlog doubling; Berkshire increased stake; AI Overviews 2.5B users.
• Bear: Capex still rising into 2027; Communication Services sector lagging; insider trading headline (engineer/Polymarket); regulatory (DMA Europe).

Catalyst

• Cloud backlog conversion, TPU external sales, Gemini enterprise adoption through H2 2026.

Why WATCHLIST not BUY

1. **Existing holder overlap.
2. Market already trusts Google's AI spend (Fortune/CNBC Apr 2026) — limited variant perception at 28x P/E.
3. Not cheap enough vs own 52w high for a first concentrated bet with $100.

Upgrade to BUY if

• Pullback to $320–340 (-12% to -15%) with intact cloud backlog growth
• Or clear catalyst: major Cloud margin beat + capex discipline signal

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3. AMZN — BUY (fund's first core position) ✓

Business quality

• Tri-segment compounder: AWS (28% YoY Q1, fastest in 15 quarters), Advertising (+24%), Retail/logistics scale.
• Moat: Wide — AWS enterprise lock-in, Trainium/Graviton silicon ($20B+ run rate cited), $360B+ AWS backlog.
• Management: Jassy executing largest infra build in corporate history with record AWS margins (37.7% Q1).

Market price

• $237.50 | P/E 29.4x | P/B 6.0x | Mkt cap ~$2.55T
• 52w high $278.56 (May 2026) — -15% from peak; more derisked entry than GOOGL/HOOD relative to highs

Variant perception — where the market is wrong

• Market believes: $200B 2026 capex destroys FCF forever; AMZN is a capex trap; stock deserved -8% post-guidance.
• We believe: Capex is offensive investment into AI infra scarcity; AWS reacceleration + Trainium fully subscribed + $225B+ commitment book = demand is real; FCF trough is timing, not thesis break.
• Evidence: AWS 28% growth (above 25% floor bulls need); margins expanding on custom silicon; stock still ~15% below recent highs despite Q1 beat on AWS.

Catalyst (3–12 months)

Catalyst	Timeline	Impact
Q2 2026 earnings — AWS growth + capex ROI narrative	~Late Jul 2026	Re-rating if AWS ≥25%
Trainium workload ramp (OpenAI, Anthropic commitments)	H2 2026	Validates silicon strategy
Advertising + retail efficiency	Ongoing	EPS leverage offsets capex fear
FCF inflection commentary	2027 guidance hints	Multiple expansion

Valuation sketch

• Current: ~$237
• Street targets cluster $280–350 (Capital.com/POEMS ~$280; consensus ~35% upside cited in market commentary)
• Our fair value (12 mo): $270–290 base case (+14% to +22%) if AWS holds 25%+
• Downside bear: $200–210 (-16%) if AWS decelerates below 22%

Position sizing

• Conviction: Alta (best R/R of three candidates)
• Deploy: $45 (45% of AUM) — fractional ~0.19 shares @ $237
• Reserve: $55 cash — add-on if AWS confirms in Q2, or fund thesis #2

Kill criteria

• AWS revenue growth < 22% for two consecutive quarters
• AWS operating margin < 30% without clear temporary cause
• Management cuts AWS backlog conversion guidance
• Thesis-specific: Trainium demand stalls (capacity no longer subscribed)
• Hard stop backup: -8% from entry (~$218) if thesis intact but macro panic

Bear case

1. Capex black hole — $200B spent, enterprise AI demand slows, FCF negative for years
2. Retail margin compression — tariff / consumer weakness drags consolidated EPS
3. Competitive — Azure/GCP take share; custom silicon fails at scale

Trade plan

Ver AMZN-2026-06-19.md — trim ~33% @ $285 (tesis intacta), full exit por kill criteria, stop backup $217.75. Sin +25% mecánico.

• Entry (filled): ~$237 GTC — $45 notional ✓ 2026-06-18

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Decision

Action	Ticker	Size
BUY	AMZN	$45 (45%)
WATCHLIST	GOOGL	$0 — revisit $320–340
PASS	HOOD	$0 — holder overlap

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This memo satisfies requireThesisDocumentBeforeEntry for AMZN. Not financial advice.