Intel 2026-08-13 08:00 ET — Pre-Market CIO Brief

Prompt version: 1.8.8
Fund: investingRobinhood · Agentic accountonly · AUM ~$2,119
Session: automation-01-premarket (cron 8:00 ET lun–vie)
PM: CIO (Ackman mandate) · Research only — NO trades
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1. Fund Snapshot

Fuente: MCP get_portfolio + get_equity_positions + extended quotes.

Componente	Value
Account	Agentic account
NAV total	$2,119.39
Cash	$2,010.00 (94.8%)
Equity invertido	$109.39 (5.2%)
Pending deposits	$0.00 (LP deposit $2k settled)
Options	$0.00 (0 open positions — policy OFF)
Buying power	$2,010.00
Positions abiertas	3 equity (AMZN, MSFT, SPCX)
Órdenes pendientes	0

Positions abiertas (equity)

Ticker	Qty	Avg cost	Premarket	Value	P&L%	Stop −8%	Fair value (memo)	Thesis
AMZN	—	$236.68	$267.66	~$50.89	+13.1%	$217.75	$280–300	✅ Validada — Q2 beat 30-jul; AWS +37%
MSFT	—	$376.41	$494.61	~$39.42	+31.4%	$346.30	$420–450	✅ Validada — Q4 FY26 beat 29-jul; Azure +43%
SPCX	—	$115.04	$146.35	~$19.08	+27.2%	$105.84	$130–160	✅ Thesis intacta — near FV low; +0.1% premarket

Options book

Position	Status
Open option positions	None (get_option_positions nonzero=true → empty)
Policy	options.enabled=false (LP 2026-08-02) — equity-only; no place_option_order

Brackets GTC: ❌ fractional — monitoreo Automation #3 activo.

Riesgo vs límites ([internal])

Límite	Umbral	Actual ($2,119 book)	Status
Cash mínimo	≥8% (~$170)	94.8% ($2,010)	✅ Amplio margen
Max invertido	≤90% (~$1,907)	5.2% ($109)	✅ Muy sub-invertido
Option premium / book	N/A (OFF)	0%	✅
Pérdida diaria	≤5%	dentro de banda	✅
Pérdida semanal	≤10%	dentro de banda	✅
Drawdown HWM	≤15%	No breach	✅
Trades hoy	≤2	0	✅
Stop backup hit	−8%	No — AMZN +13.1% / MSFT +31.4% / SPCX +27.2%	✅
muskClusterPolicy	≤50% combined TSLA+SPCX	SPCX ~0.9% NAV	✅

Nota: LP deposit $2k fully settled — BP $2,010 usable. Book operativo ~$2,119.

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2. Mercado macro (13-ago)

• Wed close: S&P +0.26% / Nasdaq +0.54% / Dow −0.1% — risk-on post-CPI benigno; tech/AI infra lideró.
• CPI Jul (ayer): headline +3.4% YoY (in-line), core +2.5% YoY — cooling rate-hike fears; FedWatch ~60–65% hold en Sep.
• PPI Jul hoy 8:30 ET: consenso headline +0.2% MoM / 4.9% YoY (vs 5.5% prior); core +0.3% MoM. Jobless claims + Fed speeches (Hammack, Barkin) mismo bloque.
• Premarket Thu: futures mixed-modest positive — S&P fut ~+0.2%; mercado a ~1% del ATH; oil aún firme.
• Earnings hoy: BN Q2 AM — EPS $0.66 actual = $0.66 est (in-line); AMAT pm (semi/AI capex read-through).
• Regime: neutral — PPI es evento dominante post-CPI; no forzar sizing pre-data.

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3. Ranking researchUniverse (#1–10)

Scores: [internal] v1.0.6 (W32 APPLIED) · datos MCP 2026-08-13

Rank	Ticker	Score	Convicción	Premarket	Chg vs cierre	Mispricing	Catalizador 3–12m	Ackman
1	META	0.817	High	$580.37	+0.3%	−27% vs 52w high	Earnings ~20-ago	Trimmed −0.5%
2	AMZN	0.811	High	$267.66	+0.1%	−7% vs 52w high	Post Q2 beat 30-jul	#2 pos, +19.2% add
3	MSFT	0.803	High	$494.61	+0.4%	Above FV high (~$450)	Post Q4 beat 29-jul	NEW 15.3%
4	BN	0.799	High	$45.10	+0.9%	−9% vs 52w high	Q2 hoy — in-line	#1 Ackman 17.6%
5	NVDA	0.770	High	$223.46	−0.3%	−5% vs 52w high	Earnings ~27-ago	No en 13F
6	UBER	0.762	High	$75.60	+0.3%	−26% vs 52w high	Post Q2 — EPS miss	15.7% weight
7	QSR	0.759	High	$75.30	+0.5%	−8% vs 52w high	Post Q2 beat 06-ago	12.2% weight
8	AAPL	0.704	High	$303.22	+0.3%	−12% vs 52w high	Post Q3 30-jul; ex-div 10-ago	No en 13F
9	HOOD	0.686	Medium	$95.04	+0.1%	−38% vs 52w high	Post Q2 29-jul	Neutral (no 13F)
10	GOOGL	0.676	Medium	$345.30	+0.5%	−15% vs 52w high	Post Q2 22-jul	CONFLICTO — exit −94.9%

Umbrales: High ≥0.72 · Medium ≥0.55 · Low <0.55

Nota ranking: BN cae de #1 a #4 post-print in-line (catalyst proximity decay). META sube a #1 por earnings ~20-ago + mispricing. MSFT sigue above FV + RSI 70.8 — trim watch. Scanner: earnings-14d 332 hits; daily-movers 248 hits; 0 universe hits (BN ya reportó; ventana 7d).

Score breakdown (top 4, pesos W32)

Componente (peso)	META	AMZN	MSFT	BN
Fundamental quality (35%)	0.90	0.95	0.95	0.85
Mispricing vs FV (26%)	0.82	0.78	0.72	0.80
Catalyst proximity (22%)	0.70	0.60	0.62	0.70
Ackman confluence (12%)	0.85	0.95	0.95	0.95
Social sentiment (5%)	0.65	0.60	0.65	0.50

Technicals (timing only, book + top 4): MSFT RSI 70.8 (elevated — trim watch, no ADD) · AMZN RSI 56.9 (neutral) · SPCX RSI 58.9 (neutral, +0.1% premarket) · BN RSI 59.1 (neutral post-print).

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4. Positions abiertas — Thesis check

AMZN — BULL validado (post-earnings)

• SEC: 8-K 2026-07-30 (items 2.02/9.01) — Q2 filed ([internal]).
• Premarket +0.1% Thu; Position +13.1% vs cost; ~47% del equity book.
• Fair value memo $280–300; stop backup $217.75 (−8.0% desde avg cost).
• Kill criteria: AWS deceleration <25% two Qs. No triggered.

MSFT — BULL validado (post-earnings) · trim watch

• SEC: 8-K 2026-07-29 (items 2.02/9.01) — Q4 FY26 filed ([internal]).
• Premarket +0.4%; Position +31.4% vs cost; ~36% del equity book.
• RSI 70.8 — elevated; precio >$450 FV high → W32 mispricing trim signal (no mecánico).
• Stop backup $346.30 — amplio margen.
• Kill criteria: Azure <35% two Qs. No triggered.

SPCX — Ackman core (in book) · approaching FV

• — sh @ $115.04 (~$19; ~0.9% NAV).
• Premarket $146.35 (+0.1% vs cierre); above FV low $130 — trim consideration si supera $140 con volumen.
• muskClusterPolicy: combined TSLA+SPCX cap 50% Agentic account— amplio headroom.
• Stop backup $105.84 (−8% mechanical) — monitoreo Automation #3.
• Trim consideration: evaluar 30% trim per thesis memo si alcanza $150–160 (FV high).

SEC (AMZN, MSFT, top 3: META, BN)

Ticker	Último 8-K relevante (2026)	Material?
AMZN	2026-07-30 (2.02 earnings)	Earnings filed — beat masivo, Thesis reforzada
MSFT	2026-07-29 (2.02 earnings)	Earnings filed — beat, Thesis reforzada
BN	Q2 report 2026-08-13 AM	In-line EPS $0.66 — guidance TBD; 8-K filing pendiente
META	Último 8-K 2025-12-12	Pre-earnings ~20-ago; no material event reciente

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5. Decisión Session 9:35 — HOLD

Factor	Resultado
Ranking #1	META — no en book; earnings ~20-ago; thesis memo requerido pre-BUY
Ranking #2	AMZN — en book; Thesis validada; hold
Ranking #3	MSFT — en book; RSI 70.8 + above FV; no ADD
Ranking #4	BN — no en book — Q2 in-line hoy; digest guidance + thesis memo pre-ADD
Convicción book	High en AMZN/MSFT/SPCX
Thesis	✅ Validadas — earnings beats confirman cloud/AI thesis
PPI hoy	Evento dominante — 8:30 ET antes/durante open
LP deposit	Settled — BP $2,010 usable
Rotación	❌ No — winners intactos
ADD	⏸️ Diferido — PPI day + BN guidance review + deploy plan
TRIM	⏸️ Watch MSFT/SPCX — above FV; Ackman trim solo con Thesis memo
EXIT	❌ No — stops no hit; Thesis no rotas
OPTION-satellite	❌ OFF — options.enabled=false (LP 2026-08-02)

Razonamiento Ackman-style: NAV $2,119 con book 95% cash y deposit LP settled. CPI benigno ayer abre ventana de deploy, pero PPI hoy puede rearrange rate path. BN #1 Ackman reportó in-line — no entrar sin leer guidance y thesis memo. Thesis AMZN/MSFT/SPCX intactas; MSFT/SPCX en zona trim-watch sin Thesis rota. Default: HOLD en automation-02.

Si automation-02 corre hoy 9:35:

Action	Probabilidad	Notas
HOLD	High	Default — PPI day + BN digest + Thesis intacta
ADD	Low	Solo post-PPI benigno + BN guidance strong + thesis memo; max ~$530 (25% of $2,119)
TRIM	Low	MSFT si supera $510 con RSI >75; SPCX si >$150 — requiere thesis memo
ROTATE	Muy baja	Requiere Thesis rota
EXIT	Low	Solo si stop $346.30 MSFT / $217.75 AMZN / $105.84 SPCX
OPTION-satellite	N/A	Options OFF por LP

Sizing futuro (book ~$2,119): max $1,060/order (convictionHigh 50%), min $15; target invested 70–85% Ackman concentration tras deploy plan post-PPI.

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6. Riesgos del día

1. PPI Jul hoy 8:30 ET — hot print revive hike bets; cool print refuerza hold Sep y favorece tech.
2. BN guidance post in-line EPS — Ackman #1; asset management fee growth / carry outlook clave.
3. Sub-invertido 5.2% — FOMO risk post-PPI benigno; requiere plan sizing disciplinado.
4. MSFT RSI 70.8 + above FV — pullback posible sin Thesis rota; trim watch activo.
5. SPCX above FV low $130 — volatilidad Musk/xAI; muskCluster cap 50%.
6. AMAT earnings pm — read-through AI capex para MSFT/NVDA thesis.
7. Oil / forward inflation — PPI services breakdown; pass-through risk persiste.
8. META earnings ~20-ago — volatilidad adelantada en #1 ranking.
9. Fractional stops — sin GTC broker; dependencia monitoreo Automation #3.
10. Social (≤5% peso) — señal débil; no driver de decisiones.

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7. Plan

1. Hoy — digest PPI print 8:30 ET; mantener HOLD default para 9:35.
2. Post-PPI — si benigno: draft deploy plan LP capital ($2,010 BP); evaluar BN thesis memo si guidance strong.
3. Post-BN guidance — automation-02 evalúa ADD si Thesis confirma + PPI benigno.
4. ~20-ago — META earnings (ranking #1).
5. Viernes 17:00 — Ackman calibration automation (#5).

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Prompt 1.8.8 · Mandato Ackman · Agentic account~$2,119 · Equity-only (options OFF) · Signals: [internal] · Calibration: [internal]