Intel 2026-08-06 08:00 ET — Pre-Market CIO Brief

Prompt version: 1.8.7
Fund: investingRobinhood · Agentic accountonly · AUM ~$115.04
Session: automation-01-premarket (cron 8:00 ET lun–vie)
PM: CIO (Ackman mandate) · Research only — NO trades
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1. Fund Snapshot

Fuente: MCP get_portfolio + get_equity_positions + extended quotes.

Componente	Value
Account	Agentic account
NAV total	$115.04 (+15.0% vs $100 start)
Cash	$10.00 (8.7%)
Equity invertido	$105.04 (91.3%)
Options	$0.00 (0 open positions — policy OFF)
Buying power	$10.00
Positions abiertas	3 equity (AMZN, MSFT, SPCX)
Órdenes pendientes	0

Positions abiertas (equity)

Ticker	Qty	Avg cost	Premarket	Value	P&L%	Stop −8%	Fair value (memo)	Thesis
AMZN	—	$236.68	$273.52	~$52.01	+15.6%	$217.75	$280–300	✅ Validada — Q2 beat 30-jul; AWS +37%
MSFT	—	$376.41	$482.25	~$38.44	+28.1%	$346.30	Azure compounder	✅ Validada — Q4 FY26 beat 29-jul; Azure +43%
SPCX	—	$115.04	$112.16	~$14.62	−2.5%	$105.84	LP 10y satellite	✅ LP thesis — never sell; lock-up expiry hoy

Options book

Position	Status
Open option positions	None (get_option_positions nonzero=true → empty)
Policy	options.enabled=false (LP 2026-08-02) — equity-only; no place_option_order

Brackets GTC: ❌ fractional — monitoreo Automation #3 activo.

Riesgo vs límites ([internal])

Límite	Umbral	Actual	Status
Cash mínimo	≥8%	8.7%	✅
Max invertido	≤90%	91.3%	⚠️ +1.3pp breach (SPCX starter add)
Option premium / book	N/A (OFF)	0%	✅
Pérdida diaria	≤5%	dentro de banda	✅
Pérdida semanal	≤10%	dentro de banda	✅
Drawdown HWM	≤15%	~−2.5% desde ATH ~$118 (05-ago)	✅
Trades hoy	≤2	0	✅
Stop backup hit	−8%	No — MSFT +28.1% / AMZN +15.6% vs cost	✅

Nota breach: NAV bajó $3 desde ATH $118 tras deploy SPCX satellite ($15 starter). Invested 91.3% > 90% cap — no nuevos ADD en Session 9:35 sin trim o esperar cash build.

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2. Mercado macro (06-ago)

• Premarket Thu: futures mixtos — Dow/S&P ligeramente al alza; Nasdaq 100 −0.3% tras tech pullback post-rally.
• Geopolítica: esperanzas de de-escalación US-Irán; petróleo más bajo (WTI ~$79).
• Hoy: initial jobless claims; earnings Airbnb, Warner Bros Discovery, Datadog; SPCX lock-up expiry (~900M shares eligible).
• Tech: SPCX −14% ayer por capex AI; NVDA +3.4% (Musk confirma chips Nvidia para xAI); book core AMZN/MSFT pullback premarket (−0.3% / −1.1% vs cierre).
• Regime: neutral — no forzar rotación; respetar cap invertido 90%.

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3. Ranking researchUniverse (#1–10)

Scores: [internal] v1.0.5 (W31 APPLIED) · datos en [internal]

Rank	Ticker	Score	Convicción	Premarket	Chg vs cierre	Mispricing	Catalizador 3–12m	Ackman
1	QSR	0.925	High	$74.50	flat	−9% vs 52w high	Q2 beat hoy $1.07 vs $1.04	12.2% weight
2	MSFT	0.865	High	$482.25	−1.1%	−10% vs 52w high	Post Q4 beat 29-jul	NEW 15.3%
3	AMZN	0.842	High	$273.52	+0.3%	−5% vs 52w high	Post Q2 beat 30-jul	#2 pos, +19.2% add
4	BN	0.805	High	$44.40	−0.3%	−10% vs 52w high	Q2 13-ago (7d)	#1 Ackman 17.6%
5	META	0.795	High	$591.00	+0.4%	−26% vs 52w high	Post Q2 29-jul	Trimmed −0.5%
6	HOOD	0.780	High	$92.15	−0.7%	−40% vs 52w high	Post Q2 29-jul	Neutral (no 13F)
7	NVDA	0.768	High	$221.64	+1.2%	−6% vs 52w high	~late Aug earnings	No en 13F
8	UBER	0.745	High	$68.56	+0.6%	−33% vs 52w high	Q2 reported — EPS miss	15.7% weight
9	AAPL	0.738	High	$313.84	+0.9%	−9% vs 52w high	Post Q3 30-jul	No en 13F
10	GOOGL	0.732	High	$360.22	−0.6%	−12% vs 52w high	Post Q2 22-jul	CONFLICTO — exit −94.9%

Umbrales: High ≥0.72 · Medium ≥0.55 · Low <0.55

Nota ranking: QSR #1 reforzado por beat AM ($1.07 vs est $1.04). MSFT/AMZN en book — pullback post-rally no invalida Thesis. SPCX excluido del ranking Ackman (LP satellite). Scanner: earnings-14d 312 hits; daily-movers 225 hits.

Score breakdown (top 4, pesos W31)

Componente (peso)	QSR	MSFT	AMZN	BN
Fundamental quality (35%)	0.90	0.95	0.95	0.85
Mispricing vs FV (25%)	0.75	0.80	0.78	0.80
Catalyst proximity (22%)	0.98	0.65	0.62	0.85
Ackman confluence (13%)	0.90	0.95	0.95	0.95
Social sentiment (5%)	0.50	0.65	0.60	0.50

Technicals (timing only, book + #1): MSFT RSI 76.1 (elevated — no ADD timing) · AMZN RSI 63.3 · QSR RSI 51.2 neutral.

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4. Positions abiertas — Thesis check

AMZN — BULL validado (post-earnings)

• SEC: 8-K 2026-07-30 (items 2.02/9.01) — Q2 filed ([internal]).
• Beat: EPS $5.75 vs est $1.82 · revenue $200.6B · AWS +37%.
• Premarket +0.3% Thu; Position +15.6% vs cost; ~45% del equity book.
• Fair value memo $280–300; stop backup $217.75 (−8.0% desde avg cost).
• Kill criteria: AWS deceleration <25% two Qs. No triggered.

MSFT — BULL validado (post-earnings)

• SEC: 8-K 2026-07-29 (items 2.02/9.01) — Q4 FY26 filed ([internal]).
• Beat: EPS $4.74 vs est $4.23 · Azure +43% CC.
• Premarket −1.1% (consolidación post +25% rally); Position +28.1% vs cost; ~33% del equity book.
• RSI 76.1 — overbought timing overlay; Thesis intacta, no trim mecánico.
• Stop backup $346.30 — amplio margen.
• Kill criteria: Azure <35% two Qs. No triggered.

SPCX — LP SATELLITE (never sell)

• Starter — sh @ $115.04 (~$15 deploy LP 2026-08-04).
• Premarket $112.16 (+3.6% vs cierre pero −2.5% vs cost); lock-up expiry hoy — volatilidad esperada.
• Política LP: no discretionary exit; capex AI headlines = ruido de acumulación, no kill criteria Ackman.
• Stop backup $105.84 (−8% mechanical) — monitoreo solo; no auto-sell salvo mandato LP.

SEC (AMZN, MSFT, top 3: QSR)

Ticker	Último 8-K relevante (2026)	Material?
AMZN	2026-07-30 (2.02 earnings)	Earnings filed — beat masivo, Thesis reforzada
MSFT	2026-07-29 (2.02 earnings)	Earnings filed — beat, Thesis reforzada
QSR	Q2 report 2026-08-06 AM	EPS $1.07 vs $1.04 est — beat; 8-K pendiente filing
UBER	Q2 report 2026-08-05	EPS $0.81 vs $0.83 est — ligero miss

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5. Decisión Session 9:35 — HOLD

Factor	Resultado
Ranking #1	QSR — beat AM; no en book — requiere thesis doc antes de entry
Ranking #2/#3	MSFT/AMZN — ambos en book
Convicción book	High en AMZN/MSFT; SPCX LP satellite
Thesis	✅ Validadas — earnings beats confirman cloud/AI thesis
QSR print	Beat $1.07 vs $1.04 — no entry sin thesis memo + gates
Rotación	❌ No — book alineado con Thesis; pullback no justifica vender winners
ADD	❌ Bloqueado — cash $10 + invested 91.3% > 90% cap
EXIT	❌ No — stops no hit; Thesis no rotas
OPTION-satellite	❌ OFF — options.enabled=false (LP 2026-08-02)
Macro	Jobless claims + SPCX lock-up — no día para sizing nuevo

Razonamiento Ackman-style: NAV $115.04 (+1,500 bps desde inception) tras consolidación desde ATH $118. Libro concentra en AMZN (Ackman #2, beat validado) y MSFT (Ackman NEW, beat validado) más SPCX satellite LP. Pullback premarket −1% en MSFT es timing, no Thesis rota. QSR beat es catalizador positivo pero sin thesis escrita y con 0 BP efectivo. Invested breach 91.3% impone HOLD estricto. Default: HOLD para automation-02.

Si automation-02 corre hoy 9:35:

Action	Probabilidad	Notas
HOLD	High	Default — book alineado; caps breached en invested
ADD	N/A	Cash $10 + invested >90% — gates fail
ROTATE	Muy baja	Requiere Thesis rota — beats refuerzan
EXIT	Low	Solo si stop $346.30 MSFT / $217.75 AMZN se activa
OPTION-satellite	N/A	Options OFF por LP

Sizing futuro: max $50/order, min $15; restaurar cash ≥8% y invested ≤90% antes de cualquier ADD.

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6. Riesgos del día

1. Invested 91.3% — breach +1.3pp vs 90% cap; bloquea nuevos ADD.
2. SPCX lock-up expiry — ~900M shares eligible; volatilidad satélite (~13% NAV).
3. MSFT RSI 76 — overbought; pullback −1.1% premarket puede extenderse.
4. Tech breadth — Nasdaq futures weak; hyperscaler capex anxiety (SPCX −14% ayer).
5. QSR beat — catalizador positivo pero sin Position; FOMO risk si reacción fuerte.
6. UBER miss — EPS $0.81 vs $0.83 (ayer); guidance a vigilar en 8-K.
7. Concentración Ackman core — AMZN ~45% + MSFT ~33% del equity book (ex-SPCX).
8. Jobless claims hoy — sensibilidad Fed path pre-NFP.
9. Fractional stops — sin GTC broker; dependencia monitoreo Automation #3.
10. Social (≤5% peso) — MSFT Reddit bullish post-earnings; señal débil, no driver.

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7. Plan

1. Hoy 9:35 ET — automation-02 market-open: revalidar quotes; ejecutar HOLD salvo stop trigger.
2. Intraday monitor — AMZN stop $217.75 · MSFT stop $346.30 · SPCX watch (LP — no sell).
3. Jue 13-ago — BN Q2 (Ackman #1 17.6%).
4. Evaluar QSR — post-beat: thesis memo si LP quiere entry; gates cash/invested primero.
5. Viernes 17:00 — Ackman calibration automation (#5).

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Prompt 1.8.7 · Mandato Ackman · Agentic account$100 only · Equity-only (options OFF) · Signals: [internal] · Calibration: [internal]