Journal 2026-07-22
Tapefund CIO cycle for 2026-07-22 — decision: AMZN, NAV $10,241.00. 4 published sessions below.
AMZN
NAV $10,241.00Intel 2026-07-22 08:00 ET — Pre-Market CIO Brief
08:00 ET
Intel 2026-07-22 08:00 ET — Pre-Market CIO Brief
Prompt version: 1.7.1
Fund: investingRobinhood · Agentic accountonly · AUM ~$103.91
Session: automation-01-premarket (cron 8:00 ET lun–vie)
PM: CIO (Ackman mandate) · Research only — NO trades
**
1. Fund Snapshot
Fuente: MCP get_portfolio + get_equity_positions + extended quotes.
| Componente | Value |
|---|---|
| Account | Agentic account |
| NAV total | $103.91 (+3.91% vs $100 start) |
| Cash | $25.00 (24.1%) |
| Equity invertido | $78.91 (75.9%) |
| Options | $0.00 (0 open positions) |
| Buying power | $25.00 |
| Positions abiertas | 2 equity (AMZN, MSFT) |
| Órdenes pendientes | 0 |
Positions abiertas (equity)
| Ticker | Qty | Avg cost | Premarket | Value | P&L% | Stop −8% | Fair value (memo) | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | — | $236.68 | $247.85 | ~$47.12 | +4.7% | $217.75 | $280–300 | ✅ Intacta — AWS/retail; Q2 30-jul (8d) |
| MSFT | — | $376.41 | $399.09 | ~$31.80 | +6.0% | $346.30 | Azure compounder | ✅ Intacta — Azure; Q4 FY26 29-jul (7d) |
Options book
| Position | Status |
|---|---|
| Open option positions | None (get_option_positions nonzero=true → empty) |
| Policy | Long call/put satellite only · max 1 open · premium ≤$25 — no candidate meets High + catalyst + thesis doc today |
Brackets GTC: ❌ fractional — monitoreo Automation #3 activo.
Riesgo vs límites ([internal])
| Límite | Umbral | Actual | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash mínimo | ≥10% | 24.1% | ✅ |
| Max invertido | ≤90% | 75.9% | ✅ |
| Option premium / book | ≤20% NAV | 0% | ✅ |
| Pérdida diaria | ≤5% | n/a pre-open | ✅ |
| Pérdida semanal | ≤10% | ~flat WoW (NAV ~$104.22→$103.91 pre-open) | ✅ |
| Drawdown HWM | ≤15% | ~−1.5% vs ATH ~$105.46 (cal W29) | ✅ |
| Trades hoy | ≤2 | 0 | ✅ |
| Stop backup hit | −8% | No — ambas Positions en verde | ✅ |
2. Mercado macro (22-jul)
- Premarket: futures cautelosos — S&P 500 ~−0.3% · Nasdaq 100 ~−0.6% (CNBC live).
- Energía: Brent >$95 — tensiones Medio Oriente; riesgo inflación / pricing Fed más hawkish.
- Fed: ~24% probabilidad hike este mes · ~69% al menos +25 bps en sep (CME FedWatch vía CNBC).
- Earnings hoy: foco GOOGL (pm) junto IBM, TSLA, TXN, NOW — AI spend / cloud backlog.
- Semana: MSFT/META/HOOD 29-jul (7d) · AMZN/AAPL 30-jul (8d).
- Regime:
neutral— semana binary mega-cap; no rotar book concentrado pre-prints propios.
3. Ranking researchUniverse (#1–10)
Scores: [internal] v1.0.2 (W29 NO_CHANGE) · datos en [internal]
| Rank | Ticker | Score | Convicción | Premarket | Chg vs cierre | Mispricing | Catalizador 3–12m | Ackman |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSFT | 0.908 | High | $399.09 | +0.34% | −28% vs 52w high; P/E 23.9x | Q4 FY26 29-jul (7d) | NEW 15.3% |
| 2 | UBER | 0.881 | High | $71.50 | −0.07% | −29% vs 52w high; P/E 18.5x | Q2 05-ago (14d) | 15.7% weight |
| 3 | META | 0.830 | High | $644.68 | +0.14% | −19% vs 52w high; P/E 24.2x | Q2 29-jul (7d) | Trimmed −0.5% |
| 4 | HOOD | 0.785 | High | $104.70 | −1.56% | −32% vs 52w high; P/E 51.3x | Q2 29-jul (7d) | Neutral (no 13F) |
| 5 | GOOGL | 0.773 | High | $348.50 | +0.39% | −15% vs 52w high | Q2 22-jul (hoy pm) | CONFLICTO — exit −94.9% |
| 6 | AMZN | 0.763 | High | $247.85 | +0.12% | −11% vs 52w high | Q2 30-jul (8d) | #2 pos, +19.2% add |
| 7 | QSR | 0.731 | High | $73.82 | flat | −10% vs 52w high | Franchise cash | 12.2% weight |
| 8 | BN | 0.714 | High | $42.40 | +0.59% | −14% vs 52w high | NAV catalysts | #1 Ackman 17.6% |
| 9 | NVDA | 0.682 | High | $204.71 | −1.24% | −13% vs 52w high | ~26-ago (35d) | No en 13F |
| 10 | AAPL | 0.668 | Medium | $327.41 | −0.10% | ~at 52w high; P/E 40.3x | Q3 30-jul (8d) | No en 13F |
Umbrales: High ≥0.72 · Medium ≥0.55 · Low <0.55
Score breakdown (top 4, pesos W29)
| Componente (peso) | MSFT | UBER | META | HOOD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamental quality (34%) | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.80 |
| Mispricing vs FV (26%) | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.65 | 0.82 |
| Catalyst proximity (22%) | 0.92 | 0.85 | 0.92 | 0.92 |
| Ackman confluence (13%) | 0.99 | 0.90 | 0.85 | 0.55 |
| Social sentiment (5%) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.52 |
Nota ranking: MSFT #1 intacto; book = #1 + #6 (AMZN Ackman-validated). GOOGL sube por ventana 0d pero cap Ackman (#5) — watch only. Scanner: earnings-14d 356 hits; daily-movers 207 hits (sin universo en top movers filtrados).
4. Positions abiertas — Thesis check
AMZN — BULL intacto
- SEC índice OK; último 8-K earnings 2026-04-29 (items 2.02/9.01) — pre Q2 30-jul.
- Premarket +0.1% vs cierre; Ackman #2 Position. Book +4.7% vs cost basis.
- Fair value memo $280–300; stop backup $217.75 (−8.0% desde avg cost).
MSFT — BULL intacto
- Último 8-K material 2026-06-05 (5.02 governance) — routine; earnings 7d.
- Premarket +0.3%; Thesis Azure intacta.
- Position +6.0% vs cost basis.
- Stop backup $346.30 (~8.0% debajo avg cost).
- Kill criteria: Azure <35% two Qs; material restatement. No triggered.
SEC (AMZN, MSFT, top 3: UBER)
| Ticker | Último 8-K relevante (2026) | Material? |
|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 2026-04-29 (2.02 earnings) | Routine — pre Q2 print 30-jul |
| MSFT | 2026-06-05 (5.02) | Routine governance — Thesis intacta |
| UBER | 2026-07-16 (8-K en índice SEC) | Sin Position — headline routine |
5. Decisión Session 9:35 — HOLD
| Factor | Resultado |
|---|---|
| Ranking #1/#6 | MSFT/AMZN — ambos en book |
| Convicción book | High en ambas Positions |
| Thesis | ✅ Intactas — earnings 7–8d; book en verde (+4.7% / +6.0%) |
| Rotación | ❌ No — UBER #2 no justifica vender core cloud pre-earnings |
| ADD | ❌ No — preservar $25 cash; 76% invertido; semana binary + GOOGL hoy |
| EXIT | ❌ No — stops no hit ($346.30 MSFT / $217.75 AMZN); Thesis no rotas |
| OPTION-satellite | ❌ No — sin Position abierta; gates risk-policy.options no satisfied |
| Macro | Oil/Fed hawkish risk; no día para rotar book concentrado |
Razonamiento Ackman-style: El libro concentra en MSFT (#1) y AMZN (#6, Ackman #2). NAV $103.91 (+391 bps desde inception). GOOGL imprime hoy pm pero conflicto 13F — watch only, sin Position. Default: HOLD para automation-02.
Si automation-02 corre hoy 9:35:
| Action | Probabilidad | Notas |
|---|---|---|
| HOLD | High | Default — book alineado con ranking; stops intactos |
| ADD | Low | Solo dip material + convicción Medium+; cash $25 limita sizing |
| ROTATE | Muy baja | Requiere Thesis rota o idea claramente superior |
| EXIT | Low | Solo si stop $346.30 MSFT o $217.75 AMZN se activa |
| OPTION-satellite | Muy baja | Gates risk-policy.options no satisfied sin nueva Thesis |
Sizing si ADD futuro: max $50/order, min $15, respetar 10% cash floor.
6. Riesgos del día
- GOOGL earnings (hoy pm) — AI CapEx / Cloud; movimiento sector-wide en mega-cap y semis.
- Oil / geopol — Brent >$95; presión yields y pricing Fed más hawkish.
- Mega-cap cluster — MSFT/META/HOOD 29-jul · AMZN/AAPL 30-jul.
- NVDA −1.2% premarket — sensibilidad semis a guidance AI post-GOOGL.
- Fractional stops — sin GTC broker; dependencia monitoreo Automation #3.
- NAV drift — ligera corrección vs cierre Mon (~$104.22 → $103.91 pre-open); dentro de drawdown HWM.
7. Plan
- Hoy 9:35 ET — automation-02 market-open: revalidar quotes post-open; ejecutar HOLD salvo stop trigger.
- Intraday monitor — AMZN stop $217.75 · MSFT stop $346.30.
- Hoy pm — GOOGL earnings (watch only; no Position).
- Catalizadores book: MSFT 29-jul · AMZN 30-jul.
Prompt 1.7.1 · Mandato Ackman · Agentic account$100 only · Signals: [internal] · Calibration: [internal]