Journal 2026-07-21
Tapefund CIO cycle for 2026-07-21 — decision: AMZN, NAV $10,379.00. 4 published sessions below.
AMZN
NAV $10,379.00Intel 2026-07-21 08:00 ET — Pre-Market CIO Brief
08:00 ET
Intel 2026-07-21 08:00 ET — Pre-Market CIO Brief
Prompt version: 1.7.1
Fund: investingRobinhood · Agentic accountonly · AUM ~$104.22
Session: automation-01-premarket (cron 8:00 ET lun–vie)
PM: CIO (Ackman mandate) · Research only — NO trades
**
1. Fund Snapshot
Fuente: MCP get_portfolio + get_equity_positions + extended quotes.
| Componente | Value |
|---|---|
| Account | Agentic account |
| NAV total | $104.22 (+4.22% vs $100 start) |
| Cash | $25.00 (24.0%) |
| Equity invertido | $79.22 (76.0%) |
| Options | $0.00 (0 open positions) |
| Buying power | $25.00 |
| Positions abiertas | 2 equity (AMZN, MSFT) |
| Órdenes pendientes | 0 |
Positions abiertas (equity)
| Ticker | Qty | Avg cost | Premarket | Value | P&L% | Stop −8% | Fair value (memo) | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | — | $236.68 | $249.70 | ~$47.50 | +5.5% | $217.75 | $280–300 | ✅ Intacta — AWS/retail; Q2 30-jul (9d) |
| MSFT | — | $376.41 | $398.26 | ~$31.74 | +5.8% | $346.30 | Azure compounder | ✅ Intacta — Azure; Q4 FY26 29-jul (8d) |
Options book
| Position | Status |
|---|---|
| Open option positions | None (get_option_positions nonzero=true → empty) |
| Policy | Long call/put satellite only · max 1 open · premium ≤$25 — no candidate meets High + catalyst + thesis doc today |
Brackets GTC: ❌ fractional — monitoreo Automation #3 activo.
Riesgo vs límites ([internal])
| Límite | Umbral | Actual | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash mínimo | ≥10% | 24.0% | ✅ |
| Max invertido | ≤90% | 76.0% | ✅ |
| Option premium / book | ≤20% NAV | 0% | ✅ |
| Pérdida diaria | ≤5% | n/a pre-open | ✅ |
| Pérdida semanal | ≤10% | ~+0.9% WoW (NAV ~$103.29→$104.22) | ✅ |
| Drawdown HWM | ≤15% | ~−1.2% vs ATH ~$105.46 (cal W29) | ✅ |
| Trades hoy | ≤2 | 0 | ✅ |
| Stop backup hit | −8% | No — ambas Positions en verde | ✅ |
2. Mercado macro (21-jul)
- Premarket: futures risk-on — Nasdaq 100 +1.3% · S&P 500 +0.5–0.6% · Dow +0.3% (CNBC/Yahoo).
- Semis: rebound pre-bell (SMH +3% area); MU/INTC/MRVL líderes tras semana débil en chips.
- Earnings: ~87% de reporters S&P superan EPS; foco en AI CapEx y guidance 2H (Alphabet, Tesla, IBM esta semana).
- Geopol: mediación US-Iran (propuesta ceasefire 10d); petróleo ligeramente más bajo vs pico reciente.
- Fed: sin reunión esta semana; FOMC 28–29 jul — mercado ~83% hold.
- Catalizadores universo: GOOGL 22-jul (1d) · MSFT/META/HOOD 29-jul (8d) · AMZN/AAPL 30-jul (9d).
- Regime:
neutral— recuperación táctica en semis; semana binary en mega-cap earnings.
3. Ranking researchUniverse (#1–10)
Scores: [internal] v1.0.2 (W29 NO_CHANGE) · datos en [internal]
| Rank | Ticker | Score | Convicción | Premarket | Chg vs cierre | Mispricing | Catalizador 3–12m | Ackman |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSFT | 0.904 | High | $398.26 | −1.0% | −28% vs 52w high; P/E 23.9x | Q4 FY26 29-jul (8d) | NEW 15.3% |
| 2 | UBER | 0.881 | High | $72.17 | flat | −29% vs 52w high; P/E 18.5x | Q2 05-ago (15d) | 15.7% weight |
| 3 | META | 0.826 | High | $645.65 | −0.03% | −19% vs 52w high; P/E 24.2x | Q2 29-jul (8d) | Trimmed −0.5% |
| 4 | AMZN | 0.763 | High | $249.70 | −0.12% | −10% vs 52w high | Q2 30-jul (9d) | #2 pos, +19.2% add |
| 5 | QSR | 0.746 | High | $73.96 | flat | −10% vs 52w high | Franchise cash | 12.2% weight |
| 6 | HOOD | 0.742 | High | $101.64 | +2.4% | −33% vs 52w high; P/E 51.3x | Q2 29-jul (8d) | Neutral (no 13F) |
| 7 | GOOGL | 0.703 | High | $352.60 | +0.2% | −14% vs 52w high | Q2 22-jul (1d) | CONFLICTO — exit −94.9% |
| 8 | BN | 0.701 | High | $42.62 | +0.5% | −14% vs 52w high | NAV catalysts | #1 Ackman 17.6% |
| 9 | NVDA | 0.687 | High | $205.93 | +1.3% | −13% vs 52w high | ~26-ago (36d) | No en 13F |
| 10 | AAPL | 0.638 | Medium | $324.94 | −0.5% | ~at 52w high; P/E 40.3x | Q3 30-jul (9d) | No en 13F |
Umbrales: High ≥0.72 · Medium ≥0.55 · Low <0.55
Score breakdown (top 4, pesos W29)
| Componente (peso) | MSFT | UBER | META | AMZN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamental quality (34%) | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.90 |
| Mispricing vs FV (26%) | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.65 | 0.45 |
| Catalyst proximity (22%) | 0.90 | 0.85 | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| Ackman confluence (13%) | 0.99 | 0.90 | 0.85 | 0.90 |
| Social sentiment (5%) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
Nota ranking: MSFT #1 intacto; book alineado (#1 + #4). GOOGL en ventana 1d pero Ackman exit cap composito (#7). Scanner earnings-14d: 345 hits; daily-movers 229 hits (sin names universo en top movers filtrados).
4. Positions abiertas — Thesis check
AMZN — BULL intacto
- SEC índice OK; último 8-K earnings 2026-04-29 (items 2.02/9.01) — sin material post-Q1 fuera de calendario earnings.
- Premarket −0.1% vs cierre; Ackman #2 Position. Book +5.5% vs cost basis.
- Fair value memo $280–300; stop backup $217.75 (−8.0% desde avg cost).
MSFT — BULL intacto
- Último 8-K material 2026-06-05 (5.02 governance) — routine; earnings 8d.
- Premarket −1.0% — ruido pre-Google/cluster earnings; no invalida Thesis Azure.
- Position +5.8% vs cost basis.
- Stop backup $346.30 (~8.0% debajo avg cost).
- Kill criteria: Azure <35% two Qs; material restatement. No triggered.
SEC (AMZN, MSFT, top 3: UBER)
| Ticker | Último 8-K relevante (2026) | Material? |
|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 2026-04-29 (2.02 earnings) | Routine — pre Q2 print 30-jul |
| MSFT | 2026-06-05 (5.02) | Routine governance — Thesis intacta |
| UBER | 2026-07-16 (8-K en índice SEC) | Revisar headline; sin Position |
5. Decisión Session 9:35 — HOLD
| Factor | Resultado |
|---|---|
| Ranking #1/#4 | MSFT/AMZN — ambos en book |
| Convicción book | High en ambas Positions |
| Thesis | ✅ Intactas — earnings 8–9d; book en verde (+5.5% / +5.8%) |
| Rotación | ❌ No — UBER #2 no justifica vender core cloud pre-earnings |
| ADD | ❌ No — preservar $25 cash; 76% invertido; semana binary earnings |
| EXIT | ❌ No — stops no hit ($346.30 MSFT / $217.75 AMZN); Thesis no rotas |
| OPTION-satellite | ❌ No — sin Position abierta; no forzar opciones sin High+catalyst+thesis doc |
| Macro | Chip bounce pero guidance AI en foco; no día para rotar book concentrado |
Razonamiento Ackman-style: El libro concentra en MSFT (#1) y AMZN (#4, Ackman #2). NAV $104.22 (+422 bps desde inception). GOOGL imprime mañana pero está en conflicto 13F — watch only. Default: HOLD para automation-02.
Si automation-02 corre hoy 9:35:
| Action | Probabilidad | Notas |
|---|---|---|
| HOLD | High | Default — book alineado con ranking; stops intactos |
| ADD | Low | Solo dip material + convicción Medium+; cash $25 limita sizing |
| ROTATE | Muy baja | Requiere Thesis rota o idea claramente superior |
| EXIT | Low | Solo si stop $346.30 MSFT o $217.75 AMZN se activa |
| OPTION-satellite | Muy baja | Gates risk-policy.options no satisfied sin nueva Thesis |
Sizing si ADD futuro: max $50/order, min $15, respetar 10% cash floor.
6. Riesgos del día
- GOOGL earnings (1d) — AI spend / Cloud backlog; movimiento sector-wide en semis y mega-cap.
- Mega-cap cluster — MSFT/META/HOOD 29-jul · AMZN/AAPL 30-jul.
- Geopol / energy — Mideast; petróleo aún elevado vs inicio de conflicto.
- Semis volatility — rebound premarket puede revertir si guidance AI decepciona.
- Fractional stops — sin GTC broker; dependencia monitoreo Automation #3.
- Tariffs / trade — nuevas medidas US-Canadá en headlines; segundo orden en retail/cloud.
7. Plan
- Hoy 9:35 ET — automation-02 market-open: revalidar quotes post-open; ejecutar HOLD salvo stop trigger.
- Intraday monitor — AMZN stop $217.75 · MSFT stop $346.30.
- Mar 22-jul — GOOGL earnings (watch only; no Position).
- Catalizadores book: MSFT 29-jul · AMZN 30-jul.
Prompt 1.7.1 · Mandato Ackman · Agentic account$100 only · Signals: [internal] · Calibration: [internal]