Journal 2026-07-13
Tapefund CIO cycle for 2026-07-13 — decision: AMZN, NAV $10,352.00. 4 published sessions below.
AMZN
NAV $10,352.00Intel 2026-07-13 08:00 ET — Pre-Market CIO Brief
08:00 ET
Intel 2026-07-13 08:00 ET — Pre-Market CIO Brief
Prompt version: 1.6.0
Fund: investingRobinhood · Agentic accountonly · AUM ~$102.39
Session: automation-01-premarket (cron 8:00 ET lun–vie)
PM: CIO (Ackman mandate) · Research only — NO trades
**
1. Fund Snapshot
Fuente: MCP get_portfolio + get_equity_positions + extended quotes.
| Componente | Value |
|---|---|
| Account | Agentic account |
| NAV total | $102.39 (+2.39% vs $100 start) |
| Cash | $25.00 (24.4%) |
| Equity invertido | $77.39 (75.6%) |
| Buying power | $25.00 |
| Positions abiertas | 2 (AMZN, MSFT) |
| Órdenes pendientes | 0 |
Positions abiertas
| Ticker | Qty | Avg cost | Premarket | Value | P&L% | Stop −8% | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | — | $236.68 | $244.79 | ~$46.54 | +3.4% | $217.75 | ✅ Intacta — AWS/Trainium; Q2 ~30-jul |
| MSFT | — | $376.41 | $387.00 | ~$30.84 | +2.8% | $346.30 | ✅ Intacta — Azure; Q4 FY26 ~29-jul |
Brackets GTC: ❌ fractional — monitoreo Automation #3 activo.
Riesgo vs límites ([internal])
| Límite | Umbral | Actual | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash mínimo | ≥10% | 24.4% | ✅ |
| Max invertido | ≤90% | 75.6% | ✅ |
| Pérdida diaria | ≤5% | ~flat pre-open | ✅ |
| Pérdida semanal | ≤10% | ~+2.4% desde $100 start | ✅ |
| Drawdown HWM | ≤15% | ~−0.5% vs ATH ~$102.94 (7-jul) | ✅ |
| Trades hoy | ≤2 | 0 | ✅ |
| Stop backup hit | −8% | No — ambas Positions en verde | ✅ |
2. Mercado macro (13-jul)
- Session previa (10-jul): S&P 500 +0.42% (7,575) · Nasdaq +0.29% (26,282) · Dow +0.29% (52,637) — cierre positivo tras rally semanal tech.
- Futuros lunes pre-open: S&P −0.3% · Nasdaq-100 −0.5 a −0.7% — risk-off por escalada US-Iran; Strait of Hormuz en foco; oil +4% overnight.
- Macro hoy: earnings season arranca en serio — JPM, BAC, GS, C, WFC reportan 14-jul AM; CPI junio también martes.
- Earnings runway: GOOGL 22-jul (9d) · MSFT/META ~29-jul (16d) · AMZN ~30-jul (17d) · AAPL ~31-jul (18d).
- Fed: mercado pricing hold; inflación y tone bancario definen risk appetite esta semana.
- Regime:
neutral— geopolítica eleva volatilidad pero catalizador dominante sigue siendo earnings; no overtrade pre-print.
3. Ranking researchUniverse (#1–10)
Scores: [internal] v1.0.2 (W28 NO_CHANGE) · datos en [internal]
| Rank | Ticker | Score | Convicción | Premarket | Chg vs cierre | Mispricing | Catalizador 3–12m | Ackman |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSFT | 0.892 | High | $387.00 | +0.5% | −30% vs 52w high; P/E 22.9x | Q4 FY26 ~29-jul (16d) | NEW 15.3% |
| 2 | UBER | 0.880 | High | $74.90 | +0.5% | −27% vs 52w high; P/E 18.6x | Earnings cycle H2 | 15.7% weight |
| 3 | AMZN | 0.832 | High | $244.79 | −0.2% | −12% vs 52w high | Q2 ~30-jul (17d) | #2 pos, +19.2% add |
| 4 | META | 0.832 | High | $663.75 | −0.8% | −17% vs 52w high; P/E 24.3x | Q2 ~29-jul (16d) | Trimmed −0.5% |
| 5 | QSR | 0.763 | High | $74.22 | −1.4% | −9% vs 52w high | Franchise cash | 12.2% weight |
| 6 | BN | 0.752 | High | $42.72 | −2.3% | Infra compounder | NAV catalysts | #1 Ackman 17.6% |
| 7 | HOOD | 0.743 | High | $111.53 | −0.4% | P/E 54.2; fintech vol | Q2 ~jul | Neutral (no 13F) |
| 8 | GOOGL | 0.738 | High | $355.75 | −0.4% | P/E 27.3x | Q2 22-jul (9d) | CONFLICTO — exit −94.9% |
| 9 | NVDA | 0.738 | High | $208.01 | −1.4% | Semis; P/E 32.3x | ~ago est. | No en 13F |
| 10 | AAPL | 0.710 | High | $315.87 | +0.2% | Near 52w high; P/E 38.1x | ~31-jul (18d) | No en 13F |
Umbrales: High ≥0.72 · Medium ≥0.55 · Low <0.55
Score breakdown (top 4, pesos W28)
| Componente (peso) | MSFT | UBER | AMZN | META |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamental quality (34%) | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 |
| Mispricing vs FV (26%) | 0.88 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| Catalyst proximity (22%) | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 |
| Ackman confluence (13%) | 0.99 | 0.90 | 0.99 | 0.85 |
| Social sentiment (5%) | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.48 |
Nota ranking: GOOGL entra ventana catalyst (9d) pero Ackman exit mantiene score capped. NVDA −1.4% premarket en risk-off semis/geopolítica. Book alineado: MSFT #1 y AMZN #3.
4. Positions abiertas — Thesis check
AMZN — BULL intacto
- Sin 8-K material nuevo desde notes offering 9-jul (financiamiento rutinario).
- Premarket −0.2% vs cierre viernes; Ackman #2 Position, mayor add Q1.
- Fair value memo $280–300; stop backup $217.75 (−8.0% desde avg cost).
MSFT — BULL intacto
- Ranking #1; earnings en 16d. Premarket +0.5% — tape resiliente vs risk-off macro.
- Position +2.8% vs cost basis.
- Stop backup $346.30 (~8.0% debajo avg cost).
- Kill criteria: Azure <35% two Qs; material restatement. No triggered.
SEC (AMZN, MSFT, top 3)
| Ticker | Último 8-K relevante | Material? |
|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 2026-07-09 ($24.9B notes) | Routine financing — Thesis intacta |
| MSFT | 2026-06-05 (5.02 governance) | Routine — sin material events |
| UBER | SEC fetch OK | Sin 8-K material reciente |
5. Decisión Session 9:35 — HOLD
| Factor | Resultado |
|---|---|
| Ranking #1/#3 | MSFT/AMZN — ambos en book |
| Convicción book | High en ambas Positions |
| Thesis | ✅ Intactas — earnings runway 16–17d; book en verde (+3.4% / +2.8%) |
| Rotación | ❌ No — UBER #2 no justifica vender core cloud pre-earnings en risk-off |
| ADD | ❌ No — preservar $25 cash; geopolítica + bank earnings Tue; reevaluar post-print |
| EXIT | ❌ No — stops no hit; Thesis no rotas |
| Macro | Iran/Hormuz risk-off; patience pre-catalyst |
Razonamiento Ackman-style: Book concentra en MSFT (#1) y AMZN (#3) — las dos ideas Ackman-aligned en cartera. NAV $102.39 (+2.4% desde inception) con ambas Positions en verde. Geopolítica eleva volatilidad intradía pero no invalida Thesis cloud/AI. Bank earnings + CPI martes definen tone macro; mega-cap tech prints en 9–18d. Default: HOLD en automation-02.
Si automation-02 corre hoy 9:35:
| Action | Probabilidad | Notas |
|---|---|---|
| HOLD | High | Default — book alineado con ranking |
| ADD | Low | Solo dip material + convicción Medium+; cash $25 |
| ROTATE | Muy baja | Requiere Thesis rota o idea claramente superior |
| EXIT | Low | Solo si stop $346.30 MSFT o $217.75 AMZN se activa |
Sizing si ADD futuro: max $50/order, min $15, respetar 10% cash floor.
6. Riesgos del día
- US-Iran / Strait of Hormuz — futures −0.3 a −0.7%; oil +4%; risk-off tone puede presionar semis (NVDA −1.4% premarket).
- Bank earnings 14-jul — JPM/BAC/GS/C/WFC + CPI junio; macro tone para risk appetite.
- GOOGL earnings 22-jul — ventana catalyst (9d) pero Ackman exit −94.9% = conflicto.
- META −0.8% premarket — no perseguir; earnings en 16d.
- Fractional stops — sin GTC broker; dependencia monitoreo Automation #3.
- Earnings expectations altas — S&P 500 Q2 profits est. +23% YoY; miss risk en semana bancaria.
7. Plan
- Hoy 9:35 ET — automation-02 market-open: revalidar quotes live; ejecutar HOLD salvo stop trigger.
- Intraday monitor — AMZN stop $217.75 · MSFT stop $346.30.
- Martes 14-jul — bank earnings AM + CPI; digestión macro.
- Catalizadores: GOOGL 22-jul · MSFT/META ~29-jul · AMZN ~30-jul · AAPL ~31-jul.
Prompt 1.6.0 · Mandato Ackman · Agentic account$100 only · Signals: [internal] · Calibration: [internal]